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Perpetual Money Machine

Today, the same hubris that mankind showed for hundreds of years in chasing after a perpetual motion machine is being manifest in the stock market through a relatively new strategy we will call the perpetual money machine. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/perpetual-money-machine/

The Inexplicable Teflon Market

Heading into this year if you would have described everything that would transpire to this point, there is simply no way we would have thought it possible for the broad equity market indices to be in positive territory - let alone for the Nasdaq to be up over 30%! https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-inexplicable-teflon-market/

This Is War

The COVID-19 data has kept us all on our toes, with the curve seeming to have flattened before turning back up over the past two months as lockdown measures have been relaxed. The economy remains bound up in uncertainty, although there are clear pockets of strength and much of the data has come in better than the direst expectations. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/this-is-war/

Large Risks, Large Opportunities

Two weeks ago we described how the global reaction to the coronavirus had begun sending shockwaves through financial markets. The situation has continued to evolve rapidly since then, and although the continued spread of the virus was more or less expected the fallout in financial markets has been more severe than anyone could have anticipated. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/large-risks-large-opportunities/

Ignorance Is Bliss

This week we wrap up our four part series on the harmful effects of news consumption. We look at one of the aspects of Warren Buffett's investment success and two reasons why news can hinder rather than help investors in reaching their investment objectives. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/ignorance-is-bliss1/

Playing Defense

The last two years have been incredibly interesting for stock market investors of all types. In this week’s insight we’re going to take a fresh look at how our trend following strategy has us positioned as we break the seal on 2019. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/playing-defense/

No Longer Niche

I started my professional career working at a large utility company in California. Fifteen years ago when I worked on RFPs to procure new long-term power purchase agreements, renewable energy was a very niche industry that was heavily reliant on government subsidizes and mandates. But today, the story is entirely different. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/no-longer-niche/

Is Cash Really Trash?

During volatility, upward trending markets, the old investment adage of “cash is trash” definitely holds true. But 2018 has ushered in a shift in the volatility landscape. The wild swings in the market are understandably making investors nervous, and some clients have ask us about whether or not MarketVANE is prompting us to reduce our exposure to stocks. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-cash-really-trash/

Where Do We Go From Here?

October has been a month that most stock market investors would rather forget. At one point last week, all three major US stock market indices had given up all their year to date returns. The pickup in volatility and pull-back from the recent high has everyone asking where the market is going from here. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/where-do-we-go-from-here/

Jim Rogers Said What?

Jim Rogers is no stranger to the headlines. Known for his natural charisma, easygoing southern charm and trademark bowtie, he has long been an industry favorite for interviews and guest speaker slots. But what he is most known for is his willingness to go on record with bombastic, headline-worthy predictions. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/jim-rogers-said-what/

Is Cryptocurrency A Bubble?

In the same way that an escalating price does not validate cryptocurrency as legitimate, a collapsing price does not necessarily reveal it to be a fraud. Its long-term staying power will be determined by a whole host of other aspects in addition to investor sentiment and price behavior. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-cryptocurrency-a-bubble/

The Moneyness Test

Pretty much anything can be used as money, but not all forms of money are created equal. In this week’s post, we will look at different aspects of money which can be used as a sort of moneyness test to differentiate between good and bad forms of money. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-moneyness-test/

The Market Exhales

They say that bulls climb stairs and bears jump out the window. That description certainly seems apropos for what we’ve just witnessed. After over a year of some of the smoothest sailing ever seen in stocks a swift and violent correction snatched away the market’s year-to-date gains. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-market-exhales/

Same Roots Different Fruits

When we first launched Season Investments there were very few investment options with a trend following discipline being offered to the general public. Today, there a number of different trend following funds. Although we are very proud of MarketVANE, we realize that value can be gained by holding different fruits with the same roots. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/same-roots-different-fruits/

Slowmentum

As you’re probably already aware, 2017 ended up being a fantastic year for the stock market. But what defined the year even more than all the fanfare, in our opinion, was the complete absence of volatility. Gains were generated in a slow, steady grind higher that might appropriately be described a consistent, positive “Slowmentum”. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/slowmentum/

Amateur or Professional?

The other week I came across an article on what is quickly becoming my favorite blog entitled The Difference Between Amateurs and Professionals. The post outlines at least two dozen differences in the way amateurs versus professionals think and act. In this week’s post we are going to highlight some of the key differences between amateurs and professionals. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/amateur-or-professional/

Multiplying Charity

Year-end giving is a common theme for us and our clients, both because of the general spirit of the holiday as well as the calendar year tax deadline for charitable contributions. Structuring gifts to take full advantage of tax breaks is only prudent, as it reduces the “net cost” to you of supporting your favorite charity and empowers you to consider multiplying your gift and impact. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/multiplying-charity/

Right Place, Wrong Time

There are many different ways to define risk when it comes to investing. But one risk that is often overlooked and rarely ever talked about is sequence risk. What is sequence risk you might ask? It is the risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/right-place-wrong-time/

The Perils of Low Volatility

Super accommodative monetary policy has been necessary to spur economic recovery and ensure markets don’t fall into a deflationary spiral. But these same policies which have kept interest rates at record lows for so long are creating vulnerabilities in the economy as debt levels continue to rise. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-perils-of-low-volatility/

Having Your Cake & Eating It Too

In order to generate returns in excess of the risk free rate (think FDIC insured savings accounts at banks which are as close to “risk free” as you can get), one will have to take on some degree of risk, which could lead to a loss of principal. As the saying goes, “you can’t have your cake and eat it too.” Or can you? https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/having-your-cake-and-eating-it-too1/

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