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Large Risks, Large Opportunities

Two weeks ago we described how the global reaction to the coronavirus had begun sending shockwaves through financial markets. The situation has continued to evolve rapidly since then, and although the continued spread of the virus was more or less expected the fallout in financial markets has been more severe than anyone could have anticipated. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/large-risks-large-opportunities/

The Poster Child

In last week’s post I explained why Amazon pays little to no federal income tax even tough their profits have continued to rise. This has become a hot topic on both sides of the isle who have used Amazon as the poster child for why our current system of economics is so broken. But is Amazon really doing anything wrong? https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-poster-child/

A Chaos Moment

Needless to say there is a lot going on in the world right now, and for us here in the US the front page news continues to be Trump’s trade war with China. The day by day developments continue to move markets and affect strategy within the world’s largest corporations. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-chaos-moment/

Is MMT A Free Lunch?

If you have been paying attention to the current political landscape, chances are you have heard the acronym MMT thrown around. But what exactly is MMT? In today’s post we will try to answer this question by boiling it down to its foundational substance. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-mmt-a-free-lunch/

Behind The Curtain

The Federal Reserve is tasked with promoting high employment and low inflation via the effective management of money and interest rates. But how? Let’s pull back the curtain on the three primary policy tools the Fed uses to implement policy. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/behind-the-curtain/

Shaping the Course of History

Last week we reviewed some of the historical context of the US banking system leading up to the creation of the Federal Reserve. In this week’s post we will continue our walk through history by taking a close look at the time directly before and after the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/shaping-the-course-of-history/

Deducing Deductions

While we will likely have more to say on tax reform in the coming weeks, we’d like to narrow in on a couple particular elements of the proposed reform in this post: the increase of the standard deduction, along with the related changes to the personal exemption and child tax credit. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/deducing-deductions/

Cure Or Curse?

The prospect of major tax reform is obviously playing a very prominent role on the political stage right now. Given the current focus, we thought we’d write about a widely debated symbol of supply side economic theory - the Laffer Curve. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/cure-or-curse/

Taking Stock in the Election

Today we’re taking a slight departure from any semblance of serious financial commentary and discussing one of those topics that is sure to bear little to no fruit – if not end up being downright counterproductive.It’s time to talk politics! More specifically, let’s prognosticate what might happen in financial markets in response to a Trump vs Clinton victory. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/taking-stock-in-the-election/

All Together Now

Last Friday we caught a glimpse of the extent to which financial markets are still addicted to monetary stimulus when stocks, bonds and commodities all tumbled in response to comments made by Fed officials. When everything is grinding upward, moving All Together Now is not a problem, but that sentiment changes quickly when asset classes begin to nosedive in tandem. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/all-together-now/

NIRP Is The New ZIRP

Zero interest rates are intended to induce growth in borrowing, lending and general risk taking throughout the economy. But what happens when ZIRP doesn’t have its intended effect on economic activity? You move to the next logical extreme: NIRP. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/nirp-is-the-new-zirp/

Is Repatriation A Patriotic Duty?

As we all know, election years tend to dredge up a variety of widely debated topics and issues. One big one is tax policy. Where should tax rates be set? Who should be responsible for how much? These are questions that will always be highly contested, not just on the national stage but at the state and local level as well. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-repatriation-a-patriotic-duty/

Daylight Saving Time: Why?

If you live in the United States, this past weekend you had to endure the time honored tradition of losing an hour every spring for Daylight Saving Time. In this week’s Insight we explore where DST came from and why it is still practiced in the US today. Spoiler alert…like many things in this world, it all comes down to money. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/daylight-saving-time-why/

Unintended Consequences

It is everyone’s favorite time of the year where we are all inundated with sound bites, headlines, and advertisements telling us why we should or should not cast our vote for a particular Presidential candidate. One of the many topics of discussion this election season has been income inequality, which is the topic of this week's Insight. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/unintended-consequences/

What is a Rate Hike Anyway?

We are now entering a new phase of the Fed cycle. After nearly seven years of zero percent interest rates we are finally on the precipice of an interest rate increase. In light of this, we thought now would be a good time to dig into what all this rate hike talk really means. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/what-is-a-rate-hike-anyway/

The Greek Tragedy (Act III)

The Greek crisis will surely be one of the defining macroeconomic stories of this decade. We are now in the sixth year of this drama. Greece has found its way back onto the front page repeatedly since late 2009, and the past six weeks have ushered in Act III (as measured by the number of bailouts the country has received) of what is truly turning into a Greek Tragedy. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-greek-tragedy-act-iii/

Not Here Yet

Now that the Fed’s third, and supposedly final, round of QE is concluded, the next step is to begin reversing its zero interest rate policy by making short-term interest rate hikes. Predicting when the first rate hike will take place, despite being a near impossible task as we will show, has been the source of endless discussion in the financial media in recent months. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/not-here-yet/

Swiss Surprise

Last Thursday the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the market by announcing that it would no longer peg the value of the Swiss Franc to the Euro. The news sent the Franc soaring against the Euro while the Swiss stock market cratered. This week we look at the reasons for the peg, why it may have ended so abruptly, and what it all means for our US-based clients. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/swiss-surprise/

Russia Hits The Panic Button

Although we are experiencing smooth sailing here at home, it’s important to realize that this is not the case when looking abroad. A handful of emerging economies are reeling in the face of collapsing oil prices with perhaps the most tenuous situation being found in Russia. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/russia-hits-the-panic-button/

Crude Chaos

Chaos theory is extremely applicable to the world of economics, capital markets and public policy. If the economy is a pool of water, every decision made by every individual, corporation and policy maker is a pebble (some larger than others) creating its own individual ripple effects. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/crude-chaos/

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