Season Investments

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Perpetual Money Machine

Today, the same hubris that mankind showed for hundreds of years in chasing after a perpetual motion machine is being manifest in the stock market through a relatively new strategy we will call the perpetual money machine. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/perpetual-money-machine/

The Inexplicable Teflon Market

Heading into this year if you would have described everything that would transpire to this point, there is simply no way we would have thought it possible for the broad equity market indices to be in positive territory - let alone for the Nasdaq to be up over 30%! https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-inexplicable-teflon-market/

Large Risks, Large Opportunities

Two weeks ago we described how the global reaction to the coronavirus had begun sending shockwaves through financial markets. The situation has continued to evolve rapidly since then, and although the continued spread of the virus was more or less expected the fallout in financial markets has been more severe than anyone could have anticipated. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/large-risks-large-opportunities/

Taxing Amazon

Few would argue that one of the most disruptive companies in recent history has been Amazon. Founded a little over 25 years ago the venture has grown to be one of only a handful to crest $1 trillion in market capitalization. But lately the company has been receiving attention for a different kind of achievement – its $0 Federal income tax bill. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/taxing-amazon/

Finding Value In Buybacks

The efficacy and ethics of corporate buybacks have been the subject of debate for decades, but the growing tension over wealth and income gaps are elevating buybacks in the public discussion – especially as the 2020 presidential race heats up. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/finding-value-in-buybacks/

Profits Through Empowerment

About 15 years ago, savvy institutional investors created a new market when they started buying permanent life insurance policies from individuals who were looking to sell their policies. On the surface, the idea of investing in someone else’s life insurance contract seems morbid, but in actuality it is empowering individuals with a better financial option. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/profits-through-empowerment/

Ignorance Is Bliss

This week we wrap up our four part series on the harmful effects of news consumption. We look at one of the aspects of Warren Buffett's investment success and two reasons why news can hinder rather than help investors in reaching their investment objectives. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/ignorance-is-bliss1/

The Cost of Paying Attention

Last week we re-introduced a four-part Weekly Insight series on how the regular consumption of news might actually be detrimental to decision making. We covered the first five “toxic dangers” of news as laid out in Rolf Dobelli’s research paper entitled "Avoid News: Towards a Healthy News Diet" and this week we will cover the next five dangers. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-cost-of-paying-attention-2/

Brain Sugar

The constant consumption of news does not allow us to predict the future with any certainty, and there is no guarantee that it will even make us better money managers over the course of our career. In reality, "news is to the mind what sugar is to the body." https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/brain-sugar-2/

Playing Defense

The last two years have been incredibly interesting for stock market investors of all types. In this week’s insight we’re going to take a fresh look at how our trend following strategy has us positioned as we break the seal on 2019. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/playing-defense/

No Longer Niche

I started my professional career working at a large utility company in California. Fifteen years ago when I worked on RFPs to procure new long-term power purchase agreements, renewable energy was a very niche industry that was heavily reliant on government subsidizes and mandates. But today, the story is entirely different. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/no-longer-niche/

Is Cash Really Trash?

During volatility, upward trending markets, the old investment adage of “cash is trash” definitely holds true. But 2018 has ushered in a shift in the volatility landscape. The wild swings in the market are understandably making investors nervous, and some clients have ask us about whether or not MarketVANE is prompting us to reduce our exposure to stocks. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-cash-really-trash/

Where Do We Go From Here?

October has been a month that most stock market investors would rather forget. At one point last week, all three major US stock market indices had given up all their year to date returns. The pickup in volatility and pull-back from the recent high has everyone asking where the market is going from here. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/where-do-we-go-from-here/

On Being A Father

As my friend Chris said during our recent time away, “I want to be able to look back on my life and know that I did the absolute best I could with the time and resources I was given.” There’s probably no other area of my life where this resonates more than fatherhood. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/on-being-a-father/

Why We Scapegoat

I recently listened to podcast with Annie Duke about her new book entitled Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. Of the many excellent takeaways from the interview, the overarching theme was how we as humans tend to be sub-optimal in our decision making process and what we can do to get better. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/why-we-scapegoat/

Jim Rogers Said What?

Jim Rogers is no stranger to the headlines. Known for his natural charisma, easygoing southern charm and trademark bowtie, he has long been an industry favorite for interviews and guest speaker slots. But what he is most known for is his willingness to go on record with bombastic, headline-worthy predictions. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/jim-rogers-said-what/

Crichton's Amnesia

Michael Crichton was probably best known for his works of science fiction, but what many people may not know is that before Michael was a well-known author, he was on track to becoming a doctor. He eventually gave up his career in medicine to focus on his writing, but his brief experience in the field gave him a healthy respect for the complexity of life. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/crichtons-amnesia/

Amateur or Professional?

The other week I came across an article on what is quickly becoming my favorite blog entitled The Difference Between Amateurs and Professionals. The post outlines at least two dozen differences in the way amateurs versus professionals think and act. In this week’s post we are going to highlight some of the key differences between amateurs and professionals. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/amateur-or-professional/

Right Place, Wrong Time

There are many different ways to define risk when it comes to investing. But one risk that is often overlooked and rarely ever talked about is sequence risk. What is sequence risk you might ask? It is the risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/right-place-wrong-time/

The Perils of Low Volatility

Super accommodative monetary policy has been necessary to spur economic recovery and ensure markets don’t fall into a deflationary spiral. But these same policies which have kept interest rates at record lows for so long are creating vulnerabilities in the economy as debt levels continue to rise. https://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-perils-of-low-volatility/

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