For centuries gold has been considered a store of value. Its portability and permanency gave rise to our modern day understanding of using currency in exchange for goods and services. We see three major fundamental tailwinds working in gold’s favor right now.
We have been in a policy-driven market now for roughly four years. Both monetary and fiscal authorities have played a heavy-handed role in the economy and capital markets over this time period. Global central bank (monetary) policy is on our Macro Radar due to its post-financial crisis impact on investor sentiment and the performance of both stocks and commodities.
It is hard to answer this question in the scope of broad classifications such as institutional and non-institutional/"retail" investors. The biggest differentiator comes down to whose money is being invested.
Nassim Taleb defines antifragility as something that thrives from random and unexpected shocks. At Season Investments we search far and wide for assets that have the potential to exhibit antifragile characteristics. One such investment that we hold in the Absolute Return asset class is the 361 Managed Futures Strategy Fund.
Unlike a stock or a bond, a commodity is not a producing asset, but rather it is a hard asset. Therefore, the fundamental value of a commodity can't be calculated the same way as a producing asset. We rely on our Inflation Adjusted Commodity Index (IACI) to ascertain this value.
A “closed-end fund” (CEF) has a fixed number of shares that can be bought or sold by investors in the open market. As such, supply and demand for those shares can cause the price of the fund to diverge from the NAV of its underlying holdings. This can present unique opportunities or risks for investors.
Japanese bonds and the Yen have fared extremely well over the past three decades in the face of persistent deflation and sluggish economic growth. This strength is largely due to Japan’s aging population, which is becoming more heavily skewed to the older end of the spectrum. As such, the Yen makes for an excellent play against US Dollar devaluation.
Despite boasting the second largest economy in the world and being home to 20% of the globe’s population, China is still very much an “emerging” market. From a long-term perspective China’s growth story will clearly be one of the primary trends over the next several decades.
ARC has assembled a $2.1 billion dollar portfolio of 100% occupied, triple net lease properties spread out across 43 different states leased to 62 different tenants in 20 distinct industry groups. ARC’s strategy was to target freestanding, single-tenant properties on the corner of “Main & Main” with geographical diversification.
Our entire portfolio management methodology is based on the believe that “the best offense is a good defense”, and that the best way to achieve return objectives over time is by mitigating large capital losses that come from “riding out” steep downturns in risk assets.
Precious metals have been an excellent store of value and are considered to be on the more defensive end of the commodity risk spectrum. They tend to outperform the broader commodity complex when real interest rates are low, or negative as they are today, since the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset is minimal.
A disorderly unraveling of the crisis in Europe is still the greatest “known” threat to investors of all types. While a number of potential outcomes are possible, we do not believe a worst-cases scenario is the most likely. In our view, all European participants are in a slow creep towards the “Lose-Lose Win” scenario.