Season Investments



Valuation Matters

Posted on Nov 20, 2012

Stock market performance over any time period can be broken down in terms of the change in the underlying earnings-per-share and the change in the P/E multiple. The best scenario is when earnings are growing and P/E multiples are expanding.If earnings are declining and P/E multiples are contracting then the market is facing dual headwinds.

Tipping Point for Interest Rates

Posted on Nov 13, 2012

The current path of government debt and central bank balance sheet expansion is clearly unsustainable.Everyone knows this and yet interest rates are at historically low levels. Will there ever be a tipping point which changes the direction of interest rates, and if so what will be the catalyst and when will it happen?

Margin of Safety with Closed-End Funds

Posted on Nov 6, 2012

"A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world." – Seth Klarman

The Ultimate Regressive Tax

Posted on Oct 30, 2012

The topic of taxes is hugely divisive with the big question being who should be taxed and by how much. What many fail to realize is that the unconventional monetary policies currently being pursued by the US Federal Reserve are the ultimate form of a regressive tax.

Fiscal Cliff Diving

Posted on Oct 23, 2012

With only two weeks to go before the election and only eight short weeks between the election and year-end, the fiscal cliff could be the most influential macro force on capital markets for the balance of the year.

The Troika Has No Clothes

Posted on Oct 16, 2012

Decision makers in Europe would be hard pressed to admit they believe Greece will grow its way out of debt, yet they continue to finance the problem that is Greece. How do these two things reconcile in the real world?

Thermonuclear Patent Wars

Posted on Oct 9, 2012

A wave of strategic patent acquisitions over the past 18 months bear witness to the “patent arms race” that is ensuing as technology companies scramble for ways to defend their intellectual property (IP). We became fascinated with this burgeoning trend a little over a year ago and have continually asked ourselves how we might be able to position our clients to profit from it.

Shanghai Hanging Low

Posted on Oct 2, 2012

The global slowdown and specific concerns over China’s economy have resulted in Chinese equities being one of the worst performing markets this year. This weakness largely reflects the market’s uncertainty surrounding the soft or hard landing debate. We believe the underperformance has left China’s market very attractive from a valuation standpoint.

Trading Sardines

Posted on Sep 25, 2012

A couple weeks ago Realty Income Corp announced it would be acquiring American Realty Capital Trust. Although we understand the reason for the sale, we are disappointed with the terms of the deal.

Pour Some Sugar On Me

Posted on Sep 18, 2012

QE3 will have no real impact on economic growth since it will not loosen any of the “binding constraints” preventing growth from accelerating. The pop in stocks and commodities following the Fed’s announcement has been referred to over and over again as the “sugar rally”, making it analogous to the surge of nervous energy one gets after indulging in too many sweets.

3 Questions for Alternative Investments

Posted on Sep 11, 2012

The universe of what is considered an alternative fund is vast and growing. Three primary questions need to be answered when considering a new investment in this space.

We Are All Turning Japanese

Posted on Sep 4, 2012

We decided to close out our position in the Yen because our thesis for the original investment has been significantly challenged. The tailwinds which have aided the Yen over the past two decades are weakening.