Season Investments

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What’s Luck Got To Do With It?

Posted on Jan 21, 2014

"It’s hard to know what will happen and impossible to know when it will happen. Many things influence performance other than (a) investors’ hard work and skill and (b) the market’s dependable discounting of information about the future. Luck – randomness, or the occurrence of things beyond our knowledge and control – plays a huge part in outcomes."

The Jobs Monkey Wrench

Posted on Jan 14, 2014

The December jobs report was released last Friday with some data points that surprised many economists. Although it is only one month's data point, the December jobs report might have thrown a monkey wrench in the Fed’s plans.

Monthly Macro: Policy Downshift

Posted on Jan 7, 2014

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. We highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the long-awaited Fed taper, Washington’s budget deal and the skyrocketing stock market.

Tail Wags The Dog

Posted on Dec 31, 2013

Investors are more confident in the quality and potential growth of the stock market’s underlying earnings today than they were a year ago. Profit margins are currently at record high levels versus their historic average, but can the current level be sustained?

Is Bernanke Blowing A Bubble?

Posted on Dec 17, 2013

Are stocks in a bubble? This question seems to be nagging more and more people as stocks march to all-time highs. One of the main reasons for skepticism is the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy of zero percent interest rates and open-ended quantitative easing.

A Hedge(d) Fund

Posted on Dec 10, 2013

In 1949 Alfred Jones launched what is now considered the first hedge fund. Over the years the hedge fund industry has expanded dramatically to include a wide variety of strategies; many of which look nothing like Jones’ original fund. But there are funds today that still hedge their portfolio using the traditional long/short construction.

Monthly Macro: New Leadership Paves The Way

Posted on Dec 3, 2013

This Monthly Macro will focus on improving economic data in the US, Janet Yellen’s recent nomination and some monumental proposals coming out of China’s most recent third plenary session.

Fed Ed: Mood Management

Posted on Nov 19, 2013

So far in our Fed Ed series we've looked at the history of the US banking system, reviewed the first 100 years of the Fed’s activities and provided an outline of the Fed’s structure and basic operations in the financial markets. This week we conclude with a focus on the highly controversial policy of quantitative easing.

Fed Ed: Pulling Back The Curtain

Posted on Nov 12, 2013

The sad but true reality is that the average American is heavily impacted by the Fed’s policies, but really has very little understanding of what the central bank actually does.This week we try to pull back the curtain on the mystery of how the Federal Reserve is structured and its basic operational functions.

Fed Ed: Frankenstein's Monster

Posted on Nov 5, 2013

In the novel Frankenstein by Mary Shelley, Dr. Victor Frankenstein takes pride in his wisdom and decides to play god by experimenting with the creation of life. In a similar vein, the Federal Reserve was born out of the wisdom and confidence that a central bank can benefit a country’s citizenry by managing the economy.

Fed Ed: The Genesis

Posted on Oct 29, 2013

Over the next four weeks we will be doing a series of Insights on the Federal Reserve. Today we start this series by taking a look at the history of the US banking system and the events leading up to the creation of the Federal Reserve under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

Stock Market Sniper

Posted on Oct 22, 2013

The 361 Managed Futures Fund can be thought of as a stock market sniper as it patiently waits in cash for the opportunity to take a shot. The premise of the strategy is that one need not be exposed to the risk embedded in the stock market 100% of the time in order to capture the lion’s shares of the returns.