There has been a lot of talk lately about the intensifying El Nino and what it could mean for the upcoming winter season. But as for us, our attention has been more focused on the violent storm that has already hit land, the one that has been moving through financial markets during the month of August.
The price of oil has sold off rather spectacularly over the past year due primarily to a decision by OPEC not to cut production in the face of softening oil demand worldwide. In this week’s Insight we explore the relationship between oil and gasoline and look at why gas and oil prices have diverged.
In Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Falstaff survives a battle by pretending to be dead and justifies his deception by rationalizing that, “The better part of valor is discretion.” While this line was intended to be tongue in cheek, there is certainly some truth to the statement in that courage finds a better companion in caution than in recklessness.
The current drama unfolding in China has many of the same characteristics of a classic bubble (see Dutch Tulip Mania, the Roaring 20’s, or the Internet Bubble as a couple examples), but with a couple key differences that may end up creating some long-term repercussions for China.
The Greek crisis will surely be one of the defining macroeconomic stories of this decade. We are now in the sixth year of this drama. Greece has found its way back onto the front page repeatedly since late 2009, and the past six weeks have ushered in Act III (as measured by the number of bailouts the country has received) of what is truly turning into a Greek Tragedy.
At its core, trend following is a reactionary discipline that doesn’t try to predict the future based on some sort of gut conviction or analysis of the macroeconomic tea leaves. In this week’s post we will unpack Season Investments’ own secret sauce of trend following coined MarketVANE, which we apply as a long-term investment discipline to both stocks and hard assets.
One of the disciplines we have embraced here at Season Investments is called trend following. In its simplicity, trend following is an elegant solution to the age old conundrum of needing robust returns while simultaneously being unable to withstand the extreme volatility of risk assets.
We have dedicated countless hours of schooling and self-study to the body of academic knowledge pertaining to investment management. A significant portion of which was focused on how buying and holding financial assets for the long-term is the best investment strategy. While we don’t disagree with this line of thought, we think its limitations need to be better understood.
Everyone has heard the phrase, “hindsight is 20-20” and most believe this to be a true idiom, but in actuality our brain plays a very powerful role in shaping how we experience the world and remember the past. This fact has potentially dangerous implications when it comes to investing.
A year ago we penned a four-part series on how regular consumption of the news might be detrimental to your financial decision-making. In an information-overload society we think this topic is as prevalent as ever. This week we review that four-part series.
Over the past six weeks we’ve been exploring the topic of risk as it pertains to our finances. Risk is an ever-present part of life, yet most people turn a blind eye to the risks they are either intentionally or unintentionally taking. In today’s post, we will recap some of the key takeaways from our series on financial risk.