Season Investments

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Is Cash Really Trash?

During volatility, upward trending markets, the old investment adage of “cash is trash” definitely holds true. But 2018 has ushered in a shift in the volatility landscape. The wild swings in the market are understandably making investors nervous, and some clients have ask us about whether or not MarketVANE is prompting us to reduce our exposure to stocks. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-cash-really-trash/

Where Do We Go From Here?

October has been a month that most stock market investors would rather forget. At one point last week, all three major US stock market indices had given up all their year to date returns. The pickup in volatility and pull-back from the recent high has everyone asking where the market is going from here. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/where-do-we-go-from-here/

Crichton's Amnesia

Michael Crichton was probably best known for his works of science fiction, but what many people may not know is that before Michael was a well-known author, he was on track to becoming a doctor. He eventually gave up his career in medicine to focus on his writing, but his brief experience in the field gave him a healthy respect for the complexity of life. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/crichtons-amnesia/

The Market Exhales

They say that bulls climb stairs and bears jump out the window. That description certainly seems apropos for what we’ve just witnessed. After over a year of some of the smoothest sailing ever seen in stocks a swift and violent correction snatched away the market’s year-to-date gains. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-market-exhales/

Same Roots Different Fruits

When we first launched Season Investments there were very few investment options with a trend following discipline being offered to the general public. Today, there a number of different trend following funds. Although we are very proud of MarketVANE, we realize that value can be gained by holding different fruits with the same roots. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/same-roots-different-fruits/

Slowmentum

As you’re probably already aware, 2017 ended up being a fantastic year for the stock market. But what defined the year even more than all the fanfare, in our opinion, was the complete absence of volatility. Gains were generated in a slow, steady grind higher that might appropriately be described a consistent, positive “Slowmentum”. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/slowmentum/

Right Place, Wrong Time

There are many different ways to define risk when it comes to investing. But one risk that is often overlooked and rarely ever talked about is sequence risk. What is sequence risk you might ask? It is the risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/right-place-wrong-time/

Having Your Cake & Eating It Too

In order to generate returns in excess of the risk free rate (think FDIC insured savings accounts at banks which are as close to “risk free” as you can get), one will have to take on some degree of risk, which could lead to a loss of principal. As the saying goes, “you can’t have your cake and eat it too.” Or can you? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/having-your-cake-and-eating-it-too1/

Sleeping Well

Since we can’t predict the future with any level of confidence, we chose to take a more humble approach to investing which spreads risk across as many different, non-correlated investments as possible as well as using trend following techniques to provide some downside protection on our publicly traded investments. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/sleeping-well/

Man vs. Machine

I recently read Michael Lewis’ new book entitled The Undoing Project which is all about the history of behavioral economics, which is a discipline that has created a paradigm shift in my understanding of human behavior. In this week’s post we will share one of the many stories from the book and explain how it relates to investment decisions. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/man-vs.-machine/

Fear Of Missing Out

Since the economy and markets climbed their way out of the dredges of the financial crisis there has been an exhausting volume of work produced warning of the next major market collapse. But what about the risk of consistently rising prices? What kinds of psychological and emotional impacts do stock prices have when they just won’t quit? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fear-of-missing-out/

Winds of Change

Virtually every measure of valuation in the US looks historically expensive and overinflated when compared to international stocks. We believe 2017 may bring the winds of change in global equity leadership, with a shift in relative strength from US to international. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/winds-of-change/

Bubbles!

If you are an investor, you are most likely familiar with the term “bubble” as it pertains to investing. Twenty years ago this was not the case, but today we are all too familiar with the term. The problem we now face is that everyone is hyper-aware of bubbles to a point where there is a bubble boogeyman around every corner. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/bubbles/

Overboard US Stocks

Over the past six years the US stock market has dominated the rest of the globe, with the S&P 500 outpacing the MSCI All Country World ex US index by over 10%...annualized. In our highly correlated, highly globalized world this amount of out-performance from the largest developed component of the global index is nothing short of mind-blowing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/overboard-us-stocks/

Running of the Bulls

The Running of the Bulls can be a dangerous event, and it is not uncommon for a number of participants to be injured or sometimes even killed. There are similar parallels to be made to a bull run in the stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/running-of-the-bulls/

Not Just Lip Service

Last week we wrote about how fees and expenses have been driven lower across our industry. Firms are being forced to consider how they get paid and what value they truly provide, which is, of course, a fantastic thing for consumers. But not all fees are created equal, and there are some costs that are still worth incurring. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/not-just-lip-service/

The Economics of Loss

Our obsession with insulating our client portfolios from the risk of a significant drawdown permeates every aspect of our investment approach. Growing capital over time is about striking an appropriate balance between preserving capital in turbulent times and capturing growth in good times. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-economics-of-loss/

A Subtle Difference

Sometimes we get asked the question of whether “trend following is a form of market timing.” In this week’s post we will explore this question and unpack why there are subtle, yet very import differences between a trend following investment discipline and a market timing strategy. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-subtle-difference/

An Alternative to Buy-And-Hold

We field many questions about the potential value-add of a tactical allocation strategy over a more static buy-and-hold approach. Ultimately, there are a number of different ways to solve the retirement puzzle. Buy-and-hold investing is one perfectly legitimate strategy, but it is not a one-size-fits-all solution that every investor should follow. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-alternative-to-buy-and-hold/

Showing Interest In Valuation

One of the persistent questions faced by investors is whether stocks are undervalued, overvalued or fairly valued. After all, the “cheapness” of a stock at the time one invests is probably the single most important driver of the long-term result. Unfortunately most of the time ascertaining whether or not valuations are too high or too low isn’t that clear cut. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/showing-interest-in-valuation/

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