Season Investments

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Is Cryptocurrency A Bubble?

In the same way that an escalating price does not validate cryptocurrency as legitimate, a collapsing price does not necessarily reveal it to be a fraud. Its long-term staying power will be determined by a whole host of other aspects in addition to investor sentiment and price behavior. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-cryptocurrency-a-bubble/

The Moneyness Test

Pretty much anything can be used as money, but not all forms of money are created equal. In this week’s post, we will look at different aspects of money which can be used as a sort of moneyness test to differentiate between good and bad forms of money. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-moneyness-test/

The Market Exhales

They say that bulls climb stairs and bears jump out the window. That description certainly seems apropos for what we’ve just witnessed. After over a year of some of the smoothest sailing ever seen in stocks a swift and violent correction snatched away the market’s year-to-date gains. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-market-exhales/

Same Roots Different Fruits

When we first launched Season Investments there were very few investment options with a trend following discipline being offered to the general public. Today, there a number of different trend following funds. Although we are very proud of MarketVANE, we realize that value can be gained by holding different fruits with the same roots. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/same-roots-different-fruits/

Slowmentum

As you’re probably already aware, 2017 ended up being a fantastic year for the stock market. But what defined the year even more than all the fanfare, in our opinion, was the complete absence of volatility. Gains were generated in a slow, steady grind higher that might appropriately be described a consistent, positive “Slowmentum”. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/slowmentum/

Amateur or Professional?

The other week I came across an article on what is quickly becoming my favorite blog entitled The Difference Between Amateurs and Professionals. The post outlines at least two dozen differences in the way amateurs versus professionals think and act. In this week’s post we are going to highlight some of the key differences between amateurs and professionals. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/amateur-or-professional/

Multiplying Charity

Year-end giving is a common theme for us and our clients, both because of the general spirit of the holiday as well as the calendar year tax deadline for charitable contributions. Structuring gifts to take full advantage of tax breaks is only prudent, as it reduces the “net cost” to you of supporting your favorite charity and empowers you to consider multiplying your gift and impact. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/multiplying-charity/

Right Place, Wrong Time

There are many different ways to define risk when it comes to investing. But one risk that is often overlooked and rarely ever talked about is sequence risk. What is sequence risk you might ask? It is the risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/right-place-wrong-time/

The Perils of Low Volatility

Super accommodative monetary policy has been necessary to spur economic recovery and ensure markets don’t fall into a deflationary spiral. But these same policies which have kept interest rates at record lows for so long are creating vulnerabilities in the economy as debt levels continue to rise. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-perils-of-low-volatility/

Having Your Cake & Eating It Too

In order to generate returns in excess of the risk free rate (think FDIC insured savings accounts at banks which are as close to “risk free” as you can get), one will have to take on some degree of risk, which could lead to a loss of principal. As the saying goes, “you can’t have your cake and eat it too.” Or can you? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/having-your-cake-and-eating-it-too1/

Sleeping Well

Since we can’t predict the future with any level of confidence, we chose to take a more humble approach to investing which spreads risk across as many different, non-correlated investments as possible as well as using trend following techniques to provide some downside protection on our publicly traded investments. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/sleeping-well/

Man vs. Machine

I recently read Michael Lewis’ new book entitled The Undoing Project which is all about the history of behavioral economics, which is a discipline that has created a paradigm shift in my understanding of human behavior. In this week’s post we will share one of the many stories from the book and explain how it relates to investment decisions. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/man-vs.-machine/

Ignorance Isn't Bliss

Investors have been worried about rising rates and what a rising rate environment means for their bond investments. In response, some investors have concluded that it is better to hold individual bonds versus a bond fund.In today’s post, we’ll unpack why it is a misconception to believe that individual bonds are somehow less risky than bond funds. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/ignorance-isnt-bliss/

Fear Of Missing Out

Since the economy and markets climbed their way out of the dredges of the financial crisis there has been an exhausting volume of work produced warning of the next major market collapse. But what about the risk of consistently rising prices? What kinds of psychological and emotional impacts do stock prices have when they just won’t quit? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fear-of-missing-out/

The Private Equity Advantage

Over the past year, we have spent a good amount of time researching different options for our clients in the private equity space. In today’s post, we will look at private equity from a very high level to explain what it is exactly and why it might be a good addition to a well-diversified portfolio. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-private-equity-advantage/

Winds of Change

Virtually every measure of valuation in the US looks historically expensive and overinflated when compared to international stocks. We believe 2017 may bring the winds of change in global equity leadership, with a shift in relative strength from US to international. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/winds-of-change/

Bubbles!

If you are an investor, you are most likely familiar with the term “bubble” as it pertains to investing. Twenty years ago this was not the case, but today we are all too familiar with the term. The problem we now face is that everyone is hyper-aware of bubbles to a point where there is a bubble boogeyman around every corner. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/bubbles/

Overboard US Stocks

Over the past six years the US stock market has dominated the rest of the globe, with the S&P 500 outpacing the MSCI All Country World ex US index by over 10%...annualized. In our highly correlated, highly globalized world this amount of out-performance from the largest developed component of the global index is nothing short of mind-blowing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/overboard-us-stocks/

Running of the Bulls

The Running of the Bulls can be a dangerous event, and it is not uncommon for a number of participants to be injured or sometimes even killed. There are similar parallels to be made to a bull run in the stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/running-of-the-bulls/

Not Just Lip Service

Last week we wrote about how fees and expenses have been driven lower across our industry. Firms are being forced to consider how they get paid and what value they truly provide, which is, of course, a fantastic thing for consumers. But not all fees are created equal, and there are some costs that are still worth incurring. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/not-just-lip-service/

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