Season Investments

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The Importance Of A Battle Plan

For those of you who have been working with us for any amount of time you know that philosophy, process and discipline are extremely important to how we manage money. We firmly believe that there is no silver bullet when it comes to investing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-importance-of-a-battle-plan/

The Secret Sauce

At its core, trend following is a reactionary discipline that doesn’t try to predict the future based on some sort of gut conviction or analysis of the macroeconomic tea leaves. In this week’s post we will unpack Season Investments’ own secret sauce of trend following coined MarketVANE, which we apply as a long-term investment discipline to both stocks and hard assets. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-secret-sauce/

Fasten Your Seatbelts

The market’s reaction to the strong jobs’ report on Friday was not pretty. About the only investment that was green on the day was the US dollar. The problem the Fed now faces is whether or not to raise rates under the deflationary pressure of a strong currency and lackluster growth in other developed countries. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fasten-your-seatbelts/

Not Here Yet

Now that the Fed’s third, and supposedly final, round of QE is concluded, the next step is to begin reversing its zero interest rate policy by making short-term interest rate hikes. Predicting when the first rate hike will take place, despite being a near impossible task as we will show, has been the source of endless discussion in the financial media in recent months. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/not-here-yet/

Lost Decade For Sale

You lend the government money for ten years, and in return they’ll offer you a yield just barely high enough to cover expected inflation over that time period. Sure, you might not gain any real ground, but at least you won’t be losing purchasing power. How does that sound? Are you ready to buy a lost decade? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/lost-decade-for-sale/

Swiss Surprise

Last Thursday the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the market by announcing that it would no longer peg the value of the Swiss Franc to the Euro. The news sent the Franc soaring against the Euro while the Swiss stock market cratered. This week we look at the reasons for the peg, why it may have ended so abruptly, and what it all means for our US-based clients. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/swiss-surprise/

The Inevitability of Higher Rates

Most investors, economists, and pundits believe that interest rates here in the US have nowhere to go but up. But rates have dropped this year leaving some to wonder when the inevitable rise in interest rates will come. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-inevitability-of-higher-rates/

An Update on the Fed

Janet Yellen is presenting the first of two days of testimony to Congress in which the Federal Reserve Chair will deliver prepared comments that is followed by grueling questioning. All eyes and ears are fixed on any additional guidance and insight Ms. Yellen might provide into when and how the FOMC might begin to shift its policies. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-update-on-the-fed/

Monthly Macro: Passing The Baton

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. This month’s piece will focus on the poor start to the year for stocks, Bernanke’s last move as Fed chairman and the growing belief in the global economic recovery. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-passing-the-baton/

What’s Luck Got To Do With It?

"It’s hard to know what will happen and impossible to know when it will happen. Many things influence performance other than (a) investors’ hard work and skill and (b) the market’s dependable discounting of information about the future. Luck – randomness, or the occurrence of things beyond our knowledge and control – plays a huge part in outcomes." http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/whats-luck-got-to-do-with-it/

The Jobs Monkey Wrench

The December jobs report was released last Friday with some data points that surprised many economists. Although it is only one month's data point, the December jobs report might have thrown a monkey wrench in the Fed’s plans. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-jobs-monkey-wrench/

Monthly Macro: Policy Downshift

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. We highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the long-awaited Fed taper, Washington’s budget deal and the skyrocketing stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-policy-downshift/

Is Bernanke Blowing A Bubble?

Are stocks in a bubble? This question seems to be nagging more and more people as stocks march to all-time highs. One of the main reasons for skepticism is the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy of zero percent interest rates and open-ended quantitative easing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-bernanke-blowing-a-bubble/

Monthly Macro: New Leadership Paves The Way

This Monthly Macro will focus on improving economic data in the US, Janet Yellen’s recent nomination and some monumental proposals coming out of China’s most recent third plenary session. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-new-leadership-paves-the-way/

Fed Ed: Mood Management

So far in our Fed Ed series we've looked at the history of the US banking system, reviewed the first 100 years of the Fed’s activities and provided an outline of the Fed’s structure and basic operations in the financial markets. This week we conclude with a focus on the highly controversial policy of quantitative easing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fed-ed-mood-management/

Fed Ed: Frankenstein's Monster

In the novel Frankenstein by Mary Shelley, Dr. Victor Frankenstein takes pride in his wisdom and decides to play god by experimenting with the creation of life. In a similar vein, the Federal Reserve was born out of the wisdom and confidence that a central bank can benefit a country’s citizenry by managing the economy. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fed-ed-frankensteins-monster/

Dual Headed Policy Monster

We have been, and continue to be, in a policy-driven market environment. While the focus has largely been on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, Washington’s fiscal policy has also been hugely influential. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/dual-headed-policy-monster/

The Hunt For Yield

The lack of available income in almost every corner of the publicly traded investment universe has forced us to broaden our horizon in the hunt for yield. One area that we think offers excellent risk adjusted returns is in the relatively new peer to peer lending space. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-hunt-for-yield/

Targeting Infinity

“Our price target for the Yen is infinity, meaning it is going to be worthless.” – Axel Merk http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/targeting-infinity/

Monthly Macro: The Squeeze Is On

This month’s piece will focus on the market’s response to Bernanke’s mid-month press conference, the deceleration in several economic data points during the month, and the recent liquidity squeeze in the Chinese banking system. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-the-squeeze-is-on/

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