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The Troika Has No Clothes

Decision makers in Europe would be hard pressed to admit they believe Greece will grow its way out of debt, yet they continue to finance the problem that is Greece. How do these two things reconcile in the real world? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-troika-has-no-clothes/

Pour Some Sugar On Me

QE3 will have no real impact on economic growth since it will not loosen any of the “binding constraints” preventing growth from accelerating. The pop in stocks and commodities following the Fed’s announcement has been referred to over and over again as the “sugar rally”, making it analogous to the surge of nervous energy one gets after indulging in too many sweets. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/pour-some-sugar-on-me/

Will the ECB go for Gold?

It has long been debated to what extent the ECB will be willing (or even legally capable) of engaging in outright bond purchases of Eurozone countries’ sovereign debt. Such programs have already been implemented throughout this crisis, but such efforts have been limited and have fallen short of anything akin to the US Fed’s quantitative easing programs. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/will-the-ecb-go-for-gold/

Are TIPS Really Inflation Hedges?

A common concern among investors today is the prospect of runaway inflation. The knee jerk asset that many flock to for this purpose is the Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS). It’s a common misconception that the primary role of TIPS is as an inflation hedge, which reflects a lack of understanding of the intricacies of how TIPS actually work. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/are-tips-really-inflation-hedges/

Three Fundamental Tailwinds For Gold

For centuries gold has been considered a store of value. Its portability and permanency gave rise to our modern day understanding of using currency in exchange for goods and services. We see three major fundamental tailwinds working in gold’s favor right now. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/three-fundamental-tailwinds-for-gold/

Macro Update: Central Bank Policy

We have been in a policy-driven market now for roughly four years. Both monetary and fiscal authorities have played a heavy-handed role in the economy and capital markets over this time period. Global central bank (monetary) policy is on our Macro Radar due to its post-financial crisis impact on investor sentiment and the performance of both stocks and commodities. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/macro-update-central-bank-policy/

Micro Update: Japanese Yen

Japanese bonds and the Yen have fared extremely well over the past three decades in the face of persistent deflation and sluggish economic growth. This strength is largely due to Japan’s aging population, which is becoming more heavily skewed to the older end of the spectrum. As such, the Yen makes for an excellent play against US Dollar devaluation. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/micro-update-japanese-yen/

Macro Update: China's Engineered Slowdown

Despite boasting the second largest economy in the world and being home to 20% of the globe’s population, China is still very much an “emerging” market. From a long-term perspective China’s growth story will clearly be one of the primary trends over the next several decades. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/macro-update-chinas-engineered-slowdown/

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