Season Investments

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An Update on the Fed

Janet Yellen is presenting the first of two days of testimony to Congress in which the Federal Reserve Chair will deliver prepared comments that is followed by grueling questioning. All eyes and ears are fixed on any additional guidance and insight Ms. Yellen might provide into when and how the FOMC might begin to shift its policies. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-update-on-the-fed/

A Look Back At Bitcoin

This week’s Insight will be a re-post of a piece that we wrote almost exactly a year ago. A lot has happened over the past twelve months, and the topic of Bitcoin is even more prevalent today than it was twelve months ago. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-look-back-at-bitcoin/

Monthly Macro: Passing The Baton

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. This month’s piece will focus on the poor start to the year for stocks, Bernanke’s last move as Fed chairman and the growing belief in the global economic recovery. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-passing-the-baton/

Monthly Macro: Policy Downshift

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. We highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the long-awaited Fed taper, Washington’s budget deal and the skyrocketing stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-policy-downshift/

Is Bernanke Blowing A Bubble?

Are stocks in a bubble? This question seems to be nagging more and more people as stocks march to all-time highs. One of the main reasons for skepticism is the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy of zero percent interest rates and open-ended quantitative easing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-bernanke-blowing-a-bubble/

Monthly Macro: New Leadership Paves The Way

This Monthly Macro will focus on improving economic data in the US, Janet Yellen’s recent nomination and some monumental proposals coming out of China’s most recent third plenary session. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-new-leadership-paves-the-way/

Fed Ed: Mood Management

So far in our Fed Ed series we've looked at the history of the US banking system, reviewed the first 100 years of the Fed’s activities and provided an outline of the Fed’s structure and basic operations in the financial markets. This week we conclude with a focus on the highly controversial policy of quantitative easing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fed-ed-mood-management/

Fed Ed: Pulling Back The Curtain

The sad but true reality is that the average American is heavily impacted by the Fed’s policies, but really has very little understanding of what the central bank actually does.This week we try to pull back the curtain on the mystery of how the Federal Reserve is structured and its basic operational functions. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fed-ed-pulling-back-the-curtain/

Monthly Macro: Green Shoots, Meet Congress

The month of September brought a slew of positive marginal changes in global economic data, the FOMC decided to leave its quantitative easing program unchanged at $85 billion a month, and Congress decided to embark on the "Shutdown Showdown." http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-green-shoots-meet-congress/

Dual Headed Policy Monster

We have been, and continue to be, in a policy-driven market environment. While the focus has largely been on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, Washington’s fiscal policy has also been hugely influential. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/dual-headed-policy-monster/

The Hunt For Yield

The lack of available income in almost every corner of the publicly traded investment universe has forced us to broaden our horizon in the hunt for yield. One area that we think offers excellent risk adjusted returns is in the relatively new peer to peer lending space. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-hunt-for-yield/

Targeting Infinity

“Our price target for the Yen is infinity, meaning it is going to be worthless.” – Axel Merk http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/targeting-infinity/

Monthly Macro: The Squeeze Is On

This month’s piece will focus on the market’s response to Bernanke’s mid-month press conference, the deceleration in several economic data points during the month, and the recent liquidity squeeze in the Chinese banking system. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-the-squeeze-is-on/

Taper Tantrum

When the New York Times first affixed the words “Taper Tantrum” to a video released last week, they likely had no idea how appropriate the phrase would be for what would ensue in the financial markets over the next several days. Neither did we, or anyone else we know of for that matter. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/taper-tantrum/

Terrible Taper & Rising Rates

There has been much speculation as to what has caused the recent rise in interest rates. The general consensus is that the market is anticipating a change in the Federal Reserve’s latest QE program, but what will it take for interest rates to continually rise from here? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/terrible-taper-and-rising-rates/

Monthly Macro: Falling Forward vs Just Falling

In our Monthly Macro, we highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the US recovery, speculation about Fed tapering, the improving federal deficit and a shift in Germany’s stance on austerity. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-falling-forward-vs-just-falling/

Lack Of Participation

In an era of policy-driven capital markets it’s essential to stay in tune with and even anticipate major policy shifts before they are yesterday’s news. The labor force participation rate is one of the key economic data points that will have an impact on Fed policy in the coming quarters. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/lack-of-participation/

Monthly Macro: Austerity vs Monetary Madness

In this month’s Monthly Macro piece we look at green shoots in the US, the changing attitude towards austerity in Europe, the pending questions surrounding China’s economy and the latest round of monetary madness courtesy of the Bank of Japan. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-austerity-vs-monetary-madness/

Will Gold Glitter Again?

It would be an understatement to say that the gold market has struggled as of late. Friday and Monday’s two-day decline of -13.7% represented the worst two-day drop since 1980. But have the fundamentals for gold really changed that quickly or is something else driving the price movement? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/will-gold-glitter-again/

Bitcoin: Confidence Game or Currency Revolution?

With all the heavy handed intervention by central banks, some have begun to question the utility of fiat currencies. This has given rise to new alternative currencies including the completely digital bitcoin. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/bitcoin-confidence-game-or-currency-revolution/