Season Investments

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Recipe For A Bank Run

Cyprus is making front page news due to some radical terms which the Troika proposed for a bailout of their banking system. Although the initial proposal has been shot down, the damage to the European banking system may have already been done. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/recipe-for-a-bank-run/

An Emerging Dichotomy

Since the financial crisis the reasons for favoring EM have changed. In a world where most developed countries are struggling under the weight of excessive debt and lackluster economic growth, emerging economies stand out as a diamond in the rough, but strong economic fundamentals have not translated into outperformance for EM equities. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-emerging-dichotomy/

Wimpy Economics

Our modern society believes that pain and sacrifice are unnecessary evils that can be alleviated by borrowing from our future prosperity. We can think of this as Wimpy economics since we would “gladly pay you Tuesday” for a hamburger today. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/wimpy-economics/

The Troika Has No Clothes

Decision makers in Europe would be hard pressed to admit they believe Greece will grow its way out of debt, yet they continue to finance the problem that is Greece. How do these two things reconcile in the real world? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-troika-has-no-clothes/

It's An Upside Down World

In John Mauldin’s “upside down world” capital markets are no longer driven by finance and economics – they are driven by public policy. This is the world we’ve lived in for nearly four years now, and current price action in the market continues to bear this out. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/its-an-upside-down-world/

Macro Update: Europe Debt Crisis

A disorderly unraveling of the crisis in Europe is still the greatest “known” threat to investors of all types. While a number of potential outcomes are possible, we do not believe a worst-cases scenario is the most likely. In our view, all European participants are in a slow creep towards the “Lose-Lose Win” scenario. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/macro-update-europe-debt-crisis/

Macro Update: Europe Still Front Page

How do we define the tipping point? Well, there are three “legs to the stool” required to support the path of ever-increasing indebtedness. The tipping point is reached when one of these three legs is weakened to the point of breaking. In Europe’s case, it’s all three at once. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/macro-update-europe-still-front-page/