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Where Do We Go From Here?

October has been a month that most stock market investors would rather forget. At one point last week, all three major US stock market indices had given up all their year to date returns. The pickup in volatility and pull-back from the recent high has everyone asking where the market is going from here. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/where-do-we-go-from-here/

Long Way From Neutral

Monetary policy is simply not as exciting as it used to be. That said, last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made a passing comment that caused the markets to sit up and take notice. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/long-way-from-neutral/

What Is Cryptocurrency?

According to the Wall Street Journal, “When you boil it [cryptocurrencies] down, all it really is, is an online ledger. The difference is that there’s no government backing it. The ledger is maintained automatically on a network of computers.” http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/what-is-cryptocurrency/

History Of Money

There are two key takeaways from the history of money. First, pretty much anything can act as a form of money as long as everyone agrees that it is so and secondly, no form of money is immune to failure. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/history-of-money/

All Together Now

Last Friday we caught a glimpse of the extent to which financial markets are still addicted to monetary stimulus when stocks, bonds and commodities all tumbled in response to comments made by Fed officials. When everything is grinding upward, moving All Together Now is not a problem, but that sentiment changes quickly when asset classes begin to nosedive in tandem. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/all-together-now/

Are We In Another Housing Bubble?

Home prices on a national basis have been on the rise for over four years now. This past June marked the 50th consecutive month of year-over-year national home price appreciation. With all of this positive momentum and the memory of the last housing crisis still fresh in everyone’s minds, many are wondering whether we are in yet another housing bubble. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/are-we-in-another-housing-bubble/

NIRP Is The New ZIRP

Zero interest rates are intended to induce growth in borrowing, lending and general risk taking throughout the economy. But what happens when ZIRP doesn’t have its intended effect on economic activity? You move to the next logical extreme: NIRP. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/nirp-is-the-new-zirp/

Bad, Bad, Bad

Last Friday the US Department of Labor offered up a shocking, and largely confusing, jobs report for the month of May. Payrolls increased by just 38,000, the lowest in more than five years and a full 120,000 below the consensus expectation of a 158,000 increase. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/bad-bad-bad/

Ostrich Finance

In a recent study respondents were asked how they would pay for a $400 emergency. Rather surprisingly, 47% of the respondents indicated that they wouldn’t be able to cover the expense out of their savings or checking account balances. What does that say about our collective finances? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/ostrich-finance/

LendIt 2016 Takeaways

Last week I attended and spoke at a breakout session for the 2016 LendIt USA conference in San Francisco. For those that don’t already know, LendIt is a two day conference centering on the rapidly growing FinTech industry. There were over 3,500 attendees all soaking up the wealth of information on "alternative financing." http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/lendit-2016-takeaways/

The Year of Meh

According to Wikipedia, the word Meh is the verbal equivalent of a shrug of the shoulders. This word perhaps perfectly encapsulates the feelings most investors have toward their returns in 2015. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-year-of-meh/

Maybe We're All Confused

We have often argued that chaos theory has a lot to teach us about global economics. The seemingly infinite confluence of factors all intersecting in the economic space time continuum make it very difficult to decipher what current data means for the future. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/maybe-were-all-confused/

What is a Rate Hike Anyway?

We are now entering a new phase of the Fed cycle. After nearly seven years of zero percent interest rates we are finally on the precipice of an interest rate increase. In light of this, we thought now would be a good time to dig into what all this rate hike talk really means. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/what-is-a-rate-hike-anyway/

Swimming Naked

The current drama unfolding in China has many of the same characteristics of a classic bubble (see Dutch Tulip Mania, the Roaring 20’s, or the Internet Bubble as a couple examples), but with a couple key differences that may end up creating some long-term repercussions for China. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/swimming-naked/

The Greek Tragedy (Act III)

The Greek crisis will surely be one of the defining macroeconomic stories of this decade. We are now in the sixth year of this drama. Greece has found its way back onto the front page repeatedly since late 2009, and the past six weeks have ushered in Act III (as measured by the number of bailouts the country has received) of what is truly turning into a Greek Tragedy. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-greek-tragedy-act-iii/

The Secret Sauce

At its core, trend following is a reactionary discipline that doesn’t try to predict the future based on some sort of gut conviction or analysis of the macroeconomic tea leaves. In this week’s post we will unpack Season Investments’ own secret sauce of trend following coined MarketVANE, which we apply as a long-term investment discipline to both stocks and hard assets. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-secret-sauce/

Tell Your Money Where To Go

When we talk about financial risk most of our us jump straight to the potential for catastrophic events such as a stock market collapse, being laid off at work, or incurring significant medical expenses. But today we’re going to take a step back and discuss a more subversive risk that can (and does) impact nearly all of us – the risk of not saving enough money. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/tell-your-money-where-to-go/

Labor Market Goes Out Like A Lamb

Last Friday the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics released the jobs data for the month of March, and although the labor market entered the month like a lion, it went out like a lamb. This week we’ll unpack the current state of the jobs market by reviewing a series of charts. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/labor-market-goes-out-like-a-lamb/

Inflation Data In The Information Age

The sheer amount of information available to us in this day and age is absolutely mind-boggling. There are a number of ways to quantify and measure inflation, but one metric that has caught our eye recently is the State Street PriceStats Inflation Index, which measure real time changes in inflation. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/inflation-data-in-the-information-age/

Fasten Your Seatbelts

The market’s reaction to the strong jobs’ report on Friday was not pretty. About the only investment that was green on the day was the US dollar. The problem the Fed now faces is whether or not to raise rates under the deflationary pressure of a strong currency and lackluster growth in other developed countries. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fasten-your-seatbelts/

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