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Winds of Change

Virtually every measure of valuation in the US looks historically expensive and overinflated when compared to international stocks. We believe 2017 may bring the winds of change in global equity leadership, with a shift in relative strength from US to international. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/winds-of-change/

Overboard US Stocks

Over the past six years the US stock market has dominated the rest of the globe, with the S&P 500 outpacing the MSCI All Country World ex US index by over 10%...annualized. In our highly correlated, highly globalized world this amount of out-performance from the largest developed component of the global index is nothing short of mind-blowing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/overboard-us-stocks/

Showing Interest In Valuation

One of the persistent questions faced by investors is whether stocks are undervalued, overvalued or fairly valued. After all, the “cheapness” of a stock at the time one invests is probably the single most important driver of the long-term result. Unfortunately most of the time ascertaining whether or not valuations are too high or too low isn’t that clear cut. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/showing-interest-in-valuation/

Monthly Macro: Passing The Baton

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. This month’s piece will focus on the poor start to the year for stocks, Bernanke’s last move as Fed chairman and the growing belief in the global economic recovery. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-passing-the-baton/

The Barbarous Relic

Last year was not a pretty year for gold. The spot price of fell almost 28% making it the second worst year for since Nixon took the US completely off the gold standard in 1971. This has led many to question the merits of investing in gold. So what does this mean for gold and its roll in a diversified portfolio? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-barbarous-relic/

Monthly Macro: Policy Downshift

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. We highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the long-awaited Fed taper, Washington’s budget deal and the skyrocketing stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-policy-downshift/

Is Bernanke Blowing A Bubble?

Are stocks in a bubble? This question seems to be nagging more and more people as stocks march to all-time highs. One of the main reasons for skepticism is the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy of zero percent interest rates and open-ended quantitative easing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-bernanke-blowing-a-bubble/

Monthly Macro: Green Shoots, Meet Congress

The month of September brought a slew of positive marginal changes in global economic data, the FOMC decided to leave its quantitative easing program unchanged at $85 billion a month, and Congress decided to embark on the "Shutdown Showdown." http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-green-shoots-meet-congress/

Monthly Macro: Tug Of War In Confidence

This month’s piece will focus on a few themes that show the ongoing tug of war between confidence and uncertainty. We’ll discuss equity market complacency, Syrian tensions and green shoots in the European and Chinese economies. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-tug-of-war-in-confidence/

Monthly Macro: The Squeeze Is On

This month’s piece will focus on the market’s response to Bernanke’s mid-month press conference, the deceleration in several economic data points during the month, and the recent liquidity squeeze in the Chinese banking system. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-the-squeeze-is-on/

The Bungee Effect

Jeremy Grantham is one of the better known value investors in finance today. His long successful track record, bold forecasts, and firm belief that all things revert to the mean has set him apart from the rest of the pack, which is why we have decided to make his Benchmark-Free Allocation strategy a core holding in our Absolute Return bucket. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-bungee-effect/

Monthly Macro: Austerity vs Monetary Madness

In this month’s Monthly Macro piece we look at green shoots in the US, the changing attitude towards austerity in Europe, the pending questions surrounding China’s economy and the latest round of monetary madness courtesy of the Bank of Japan. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-austerity-vs-monetary-madness/

Coach Gets The Tap

Coach is a brand best known here in the US for their leather accessories. The primary risks to the company’s future are the same as its opportunities as it now looks to expand its reach beyond the US and other developed markets into higher growing emerging markets. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/coach-gets-the-tap/

An Emerging Dichotomy

Since the financial crisis the reasons for favoring EM have changed. In a world where most developed countries are struggling under the weight of excessive debt and lackluster economic growth, emerging economies stand out as a diamond in the rough, but strong economic fundamentals have not translated into outperformance for EM equities. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-emerging-dichotomy/

A Golden Life Raft

The price of gold is reflecting the tug of war between near-term expectations of a global recovery and long-term inflation risks. As the old saying goes, “gold is no one’s liability” which makes it the perfect life raft for investors with a long-term perspective faced with a global economy that is drowning in debt. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-golden-life-raft/

Buying A Four-Letter Word

We added AAPL to our watch list when it broke below $550 in November, and we purchased the stock yesterday in our client portfolios at roughly $451/share. We’ll spare you the technical details as there is no shortage of hyper-granular analysis available on the web, but here are a handful of high-level reasons for our decision. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/buying-a-four-letter-word/

Can the Stock Market Repeat?

This will be the first quarter of negative growth in the past eleven, and while the majority of companies beat bottom line earnings estimates, the 41% that beat top line sales estimates is the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/can-the-stock-market-repeat/

Margin of Safety with Closed-End Funds

"A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world." – Seth Klarman http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/margin-of-safety-with-closed-end-funds/

Shanghai Hanging Low

The global slowdown and specific concerns over China’s economy have resulted in Chinese equities being one of the worst performing markets this year. This weakness largely reflects the market’s uncertainty surrounding the soft or hard landing debate. We believe the underperformance has left China’s market very attractive from a valuation standpoint. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/shanghai-hanging-low/

Having Your Cake & Eating It Too

The improving fundamentals in emerging markets versus the deteriorating fundamentals in developed markets are primarily due to the different stages of the economic life cycle. Many emerging markets have made some tough, long-term decisions to bring their financial houses in order and are now reaping the benefits. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/having-your-cake-and-eating-it-too/

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