Virtually every measure of valuation in the US looks historically expensive and overinflated when compared to international stocks. We believe 2017 may bring the winds of change in global equity leadership, with a shift in relative strength from US to international. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/winds-of-change/
Over the past six years the US stock market has dominated the rest of the globe, with the S&P 500 outpacing the MSCI All Country World ex US index by over 10%...annualized. In our highly correlated, highly globalized world this amount of out-performance from the largest developed component of the global index is nothing short of mind-blowing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/overboard-us-stocks/
One of the persistent questions faced by investors is whether stocks are undervalued, overvalued or fairly valued. After all, the “cheapness” of a stock at the time one invests is probably the single most important driver of the long-term result. Unfortunately most of the time ascertaining whether or not valuations are too high or too low isn’t that clear cut. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/showing-interest-in-valuation/
Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. This month’s piece will focus on the poor start to the year for stocks, Bernanke’s last move as Fed chairman and the growing belief in the global economic recovery. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-passing-the-baton/
Last year was not a pretty year for gold. The spot price of fell almost 28% making it the second worst year for since Nixon took the US completely off the gold standard in 1971. This has led many to question the merits of investing in gold. So what does this mean for gold and its roll in a diversified portfolio? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-barbarous-relic/
Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. We highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the long-awaited Fed taper, Washington’s budget deal and the skyrocketing stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-policy-downshift/
Jeremy Grantham is one of the better known value investors in finance today. His long successful track record, bold forecasts, and firm belief that all things revert to the mean has set him apart from the rest of the pack, which is why we have decided to make his Benchmark-Free Allocation strategy a core holding in our Absolute Return bucket. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-bungee-effect/
Coach is a brand best known here in the US for their leather accessories. The primary risks to the company’s future are the same as its opportunities as it now looks to expand its reach beyond the US and other developed markets into higher growing emerging markets. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/coach-gets-the-tap/
Since the financial crisis the reasons for favoring EM have changed. In a world where most developed countries are struggling under the weight of excessive debt and lackluster economic growth, emerging economies stand out as a diamond in the rough, but strong economic fundamentals have not translated into outperformance for EM equities. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-emerging-dichotomy/
The price of gold is reflecting the tug of war between near-term expectations of a global recovery and long-term inflation risks. As the old saying goes, “gold is no one’s liability” which makes it the perfect life raft for investors with a long-term perspective faced with a global economy that is drowning in debt. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-golden-life-raft/
We added AAPL to our watch list when it broke below $550 in November, and we purchased the stock yesterday in our client portfolios at roughly $451/share. We’ll spare you the technical details as there is no shortage of hyper-granular analysis available on the web, but here are a handful of high-level reasons for our decision. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/buying-a-four-letter-word/
The global slowdown and specific concerns over China’s economy have resulted in Chinese equities being one of the worst performing markets this year. This weakness largely reflects the market’s uncertainty surrounding the soft or hard landing debate. We believe the underperformance has left China’s market very attractive from a valuation standpoint. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/shanghai-hanging-low/
The improving fundamentals in emerging markets versus the deteriorating fundamentals in developed markets are primarily due to the different stages of the economic life cycle. Many emerging markets have made some tough, long-term decisions to bring their financial houses in order and are now reaping the benefits. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/having-your-cake-and-eating-it-too/
