Season Investments

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No Longer Niche

I started my professional career working at a large utility company in California. Fifteen years ago when I worked on RFPs to procure new long-term power purchase agreements, renewable energy was a very niche industry that was heavily reliant on government subsidizes and mandates. But today, the story is entirely different. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/no-longer-niche/

A Recipe For Disaster

Yesterday the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the recently completed 2018 fiscal year. Unfortunately, despite an incredibly positive economic backdrop the Federal government’s debt and spending levels remain a grave concern. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-recipe-for-disaster/

Rise of the Machines

The fear of machines taking jobs away from human beings is not a new one. This fear has proven to be misplaced as technology and machines have created more jobs than they have taken away. But could all that be changing going forward and if so, why is this time any different? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/rise-of-the-machines/

Shades of Gray

Many economists have criticized President Trump's stance on tariffs. But in the words of Thomas Jefferson, when it comes to matters of the economy, “no one axiom can be laid down as wise and expedient for all times and circumstances.” http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/shades-of-gray/

What Is Money?

Most people understand that money is valuable because it can used to purchase all the stuff we want and need, but not many people truly understand its substance. What makes money valuable and what makes one form of money better than another? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/what-is-money/

Slowmentum

As you’re probably already aware, 2017 ended up being a fantastic year for the stock market. But what defined the year even more than all the fanfare, in our opinion, was the complete absence of volatility. Gains were generated in a slow, steady grind higher that might appropriately be described a consistent, positive “Slowmentum”. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/slowmentum/

Right Place, Wrong Time

There are many different ways to define risk when it comes to investing. But one risk that is often overlooked and rarely ever talked about is sequence risk. What is sequence risk you might ask? It is the risk of experiencing bad investment outcomes at the wrong time. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/right-place-wrong-time/

Is Good Advice Good Enough?

Giving someone “good advice” is rarely enough. Most of us already know what we should do, or what the right answer is…yet often times we still do the opposite. Advice moves from being “good” to being “effective” when it is tailored and delivered in such a way that actually spurs the behavioral change needed to attain the desired outcomes. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-good-advice-good-enough/

Cure Or Curse?

The prospect of major tax reform is obviously playing a very prominent role on the political stage right now. Given the current focus, we thought we’d write about a widely debated symbol of supply side economic theory - the Laffer Curve. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/cure-or-curse/

Man vs. Machine

I recently read Michael Lewis’ new book entitled The Undoing Project which is all about the history of behavioral economics, which is a discipline that has created a paradigm shift in my understanding of human behavior. In this week’s post we will share one of the many stories from the book and explain how it relates to investment decisions. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/man-vs.-machine/

Ignorance Isn't Bliss

Investors have been worried about rising rates and what a rising rate environment means for their bond investments. In response, some investors have concluded that it is better to hold individual bonds versus a bond fund.In today’s post, we’ll unpack why it is a misconception to believe that individual bonds are somehow less risky than bond funds. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/ignorance-isnt-bliss/

Full Employment

Last week a widely circulated report claimed that the country’s labor market had reached "full employment." Since the report hit the wire less than a week ago the concept of full employment has been the subject of a lot of discourse within the financial world. So what is full employment exactly, and how do we know if we’ve reached this important milestone? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/full-employment/

Going Green

Unfortunately, renewable energy has become a partisan issue which receives support from those on the left and pushback from those on the right. In today’s post, we are going to make the argument for one particular renewable energy investment which satisfies both the moral and economic agendas on both sides of the party lines. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/going-green/

A False Sense of Security

We make predictions about the future in order to calm our fears by giving us a false sense of control over something that is by nature highly uncertain. The problem in doing so is that it has the potential to short circuit the self-correcting nature of human creativity and ingenuity which enables us to solve present day problems and build a brighter future. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-false-sense-of-security/

Volatility’s Impact

A few weeks ago we wrote a post entitled The Economics of Loss discussing the importance of reducing volatility and managing exposure to large draw downs in your portfolio.. Not only are large swings in investment value hard to deal with emotionally, but they can be detrimental to the mathematical sustainability of a long-term retirement plan. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/volatilitys-impact/

The Economics of Loss

Our obsession with insulating our client portfolios from the risk of a significant drawdown permeates every aspect of our investment approach. Growing capital over time is about striking an appropriate balance between preserving capital in turbulent times and capturing growth in good times. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-economics-of-loss/

The Endangered Swing Voter

I think we can all agree, that this Presidential election cycle has been extremely polarizing for our country. All of this polarization has led to the near extinction of a group of voters known as swing voters. Polarization rather than persuasion now paves the way to the White House. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-endangered-swing-voter/

Plight of an NBA Superstar

As any casual NBA fan already knows, Kevin Durant was in the news last week with his decision to leave the OKC Thunder for this year's NBA Finals runner-up Golden State Warriors. His decision to abandon his team in order to join a rival was seen as a betrayal to say the least. Why is this move becoming more common place in the NBA? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/plight-of-an-nba-superstar/

More Decisions Under Uncertainty

With a short week and on the heels of last week's post, we have decided to do a re-post on the topic of Decision Analysis. This week's post looks at how to make rational versus emotional decisions in the face of uncertainty. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/more-decisions-under-uncertainty/

Part of the Game

The human brain processes information in a linear fashion, but we don't live in a linear world. Our world is a complex system with lots of moving parts and plenty of good old fashion chance/luck at play. As such, we shouldn't judge our decision making based on good or bad outcomes, but rather look at the process behind the decision being made. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/part-of-the-game/

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