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The Perils of Low Volatility

Super accommodative monetary policy has been necessary to spur economic recovery and ensure markets don’t fall into a deflationary spiral. But these same policies which have kept interest rates at record lows for so long are creating vulnerabilities in the economy as debt levels continue to rise. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-perils-of-low-volatility/

Fear Of Missing Out

Since the economy and markets climbed their way out of the dredges of the financial crisis there has been an exhausting volume of work produced warning of the next major market collapse. But what about the risk of consistently rising prices? What kinds of psychological and emotional impacts do stock prices have when they just won’t quit? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/fear-of-missing-out/

Volatility’s Impact

A few weeks ago we wrote a post entitled The Economics of Loss discussing the importance of reducing volatility and managing exposure to large draw downs in your portfolio.. Not only are large swings in investment value hard to deal with emotionally, but they can be detrimental to the mathematical sustainability of a long-term retirement plan. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/volatilitys-impact/

An Alternative to Buy-And-Hold

We field many questions about the potential value-add of a tactical allocation strategy over a more static buy-and-hold approach. Ultimately, there are a number of different ways to solve the retirement puzzle. Buy-and-hold investing is one perfectly legitimate strategy, but it is not a one-size-fits-all solution that every investor should follow. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-alternative-to-buy-and-hold/

All Together Now

Last Friday we caught a glimpse of the extent to which financial markets are still addicted to monetary stimulus when stocks, bonds and commodities all tumbled in response to comments made by Fed officials. When everything is grinding upward, moving All Together Now is not a problem, but that sentiment changes quickly when asset classes begin to nosedive in tandem. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/all-together-now/

A Royal Divorce

Last week’s referendum vote in the UK was the culmination of a debate that has been raging for several years on whether Britain should be part of the European Union. The vote in favor of a Brexit sent shock waves throughout the global financial markets which were by and large pricing in a "Remain" outcome. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-royal-divorce/

Part of the Game

The human brain processes information in a linear fashion, but we don't live in a linear world. Our world is a complex system with lots of moving parts and plenty of good old fashion chance/luck at play. As such, we shouldn't judge our decision making based on good or bad outcomes, but rather look at the process behind the decision being made. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/part-of-the-game/

LendIt 2016 Takeaways

Last week I attended and spoke at a breakout session for the 2016 LendIt USA conference in San Francisco. For those that don’t already know, LendIt is a two day conference centering on the rapidly growing FinTech industry. There were over 3,500 attendees all soaking up the wealth of information on "alternative financing." http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/lendit-2016-takeaways/

Safety In Numbers

Just last month, I received an email from Van Eck trumpeting the merits of peer-to-peer lending. It was interesting to read that a $30 billion+ asset management firm would go on record to endorse the merits of the once relatively obscure space. This week we provide an update on how our P2P managed account composite is performing 19 months since inception. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/safety-in-numbers/

Hindsight Isn't 20/20

Everyone has heard the phrase, “hindsight is 20-20” and most believe this to be a true idiom, but in actuality our brain plays a very powerful role in shaping how we experience the world and remember the past. This fact has potentially dangerous implications when it comes to investing. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/hindsight-isnt-2020/

Life is a Voyage

Over the past six weeks we’ve been exploring the topic of risk as it pertains to our finances. Risk is an ever-present part of life, yet most people turn a blind eye to the risks they are either intentionally or unintentionally taking. In today’s post, we will recap some of the key takeaways from our series on financial risk. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/life-is-a-voyage/

Building A Better Mousetrap

P2P lending is trying to displace the traditional banking model. One of the reasons we are so bullish on P2P lending is because we see it as a technology play in an established and proven industry. P2P platforms are simply building a better mousetrap through the use of technology in the age old banking industry. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/building-a-better-mousetrap/

Young Buffett's Wisdom

Few would argue that Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors of our time. Some might guess that a younger, less experienced Buffett managing a hedge fund might have a drastically different investment philosophy than the sage we know today, but is that the case? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/young-buffetts-wisdom/

A Winning Combination

This will be our third post in a three week series on real estate investing in which we move beyond the personal residence and look at investment properties that can not only capture appreciation but also produce cash flow from rents. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-winning-combination/

Home Sweet Home

For generations, Americans have been taught that owning a home is one of, if not the best, investment they can make with their money. In a recent Gallup poll, Americans currently rank real estate as the best investment over stocks, gold, bonds, and savings accounts but is that really the case? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/home-sweet-home/

The Tortoise or the Hare

All financial assets fall into one of four categories: equity, debt, currency, or hard assets. So where does absolute return fit into the mix? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-tortoise-or-the-hare/

The Barbarous Relic

Last year was not a pretty year for gold. The spot price of fell almost 28% making it the second worst year for since Nixon took the US completely off the gold standard in 1971. This has led many to question the merits of investing in gold. So what does this mean for gold and its roll in a diversified portfolio? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-barbarous-relic/

What’s Luck Got To Do With It?

"It’s hard to know what will happen and impossible to know when it will happen. Many things influence performance other than (a) investors’ hard work and skill and (b) the market’s dependable discounting of information about the future. Luck – randomness, or the occurrence of things beyond our knowledge and control – plays a huge part in outcomes." http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/whats-luck-got-to-do-with-it/

Monthly Macro: Policy Downshift

Our Monthly Macro is a recurring post that appears on the first Tuesday of every month and recaps the high level macro developments of the previous month. We highlight the global themes that we believe are the most important and discuss why they matter for investors. This month’s piece will focus on the long-awaited Fed taper, Washington’s budget deal and the skyrocketing stock market. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/monthly-macro-policy-downshift/

A Hedge(d) Fund

In 1949 Alfred Jones launched what is now considered the first hedge fund. Over the years the hedge fund industry has expanded dramatically to include a wide variety of strategies; many of which look nothing like Jones’ original fund. But there are funds today that still hedge their portfolio using the traditional long/short construction. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/a-hedged-fund/

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