True diversification is achieved by owning investments across multiple asset classes with low correlation to one another, but that hasn't worked over the past 18 months with stocks being "the only game in town." Is diversification dead or will "the knife cut both ways" for this style of investing? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/is-diversification-dead/
It would be an understatement to say that the gold market has struggled as of late. Friday and Monday’s two-day decline of -13.7% represented the worst two-day drop since 1980. But have the fundamentals for gold really changed that quickly or is something else driving the price movement? http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/will-gold-glitter-again/
Since the financial crisis the reasons for favoring EM have changed. In a world where most developed countries are struggling under the weight of excessive debt and lackluster economic growth, emerging economies stand out as a diamond in the rough, but strong economic fundamentals have not translated into outperformance for EM equities. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/an-emerging-dichotomy/
The foundational principal of Diversification 2.0 is finding and investing in assets with low correlation to each other. A portfolio consisting of highly correlated investments is nothing more than a one directional bet on the future. The portfolio will do well in one particular environment but is exposed to a great number of risks if the world doesn't unfold as expected. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/achieving-real-diversification/
There is a bull market in uncertainty that is unsettling for many but also creates opportunity for those willing to take the tide at the flood. This uncertainty is not unfounded, but it might be overpriced. Part of our job is to find the best way to take advantage of the “flood” in uncertainty. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/taking-the-tide-at-the-flood/
Our modern society believes that pain and sacrifice are unnecessary evils that can be alleviated by borrowing from our future prosperity. We can think of this as Wimpy economics since we would “gladly pay you Tuesday” for a hamburger today. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/wimpy-economics/
Nassim Taleb made his fortune with an uncanny willingness to lose small amounts of money the majority of the time in order to collect a huge windfall over short, punctuated “Black Swan” events. We see XVZ as having similar characteristics to Taleb’s strategy, and therefore believe it demands patience and a long time horizon in order to prove its investment merit. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/the-patience-of-taleb/
A wave of strategic patent acquisitions over the past 18 months bear witness to the “patent arms race” that is ensuing as technology companies scramble for ways to defend their intellectual property (IP). We became fascinated with this burgeoning trend a little over a year ago and have continually asked ourselves how we might be able to position our clients to profit from it. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/thermonuclear-patent-wars/
A strategy that is market neutral takes both long and short positions in order to reduce the impact of the market while capturing the relative performance spread between the long and short portfolios. If executed correctly, market neutral strategies exhibit no correlation to stocks or bonds while delivering a unique return stream based purely on the manager skill. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/value-investors-and-quants-unite/
A common concern among investors today is the prospect of runaway inflation. The knee jerk asset that many flock to for this purpose is the Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS). It’s a common misconception that the primary role of TIPS is as an inflation hedge, which reflects a lack of understanding of the intricacies of how TIPS actually work. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/are-tips-really-inflation-hedges/
Nassim Taleb defines antifragility as something that thrives from random and unexpected shocks. At Season Investments we search far and wide for assets that have the potential to exhibit antifragile characteristics. One such investment that we hold in the Absolute Return asset class is the 361 Managed Futures Strategy Fund. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/micro-update-antifragile-investments/
Japanese bonds and the Yen have fared extremely well over the past three decades in the face of persistent deflation and sluggish economic growth. This strength is largely due to Japan’s aging population, which is becoming more heavily skewed to the older end of the spectrum. As such, the Yen makes for an excellent play against US Dollar devaluation. http://www.seasoninvestments.com/insights/micro-update-japanese-yen/
