Season Investments

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INSIGHTS

Recipe For A Bank Run

Posted on Mar 19, 2013

Cyprus is making front page news due to some radical terms which the Troika proposed for a bailout of their banking system. Although the initial proposal has been shot down, the damage to the European banking system may have already been done.

An Emerging Dichotomy

Posted on Mar 12, 2013

Since the financial crisis the reasons for favoring EM have changed. In a world where most developed countries are struggling under the weight of excessive debt and lackluster economic growth, emerging economies stand out as a diamond in the rough, but strong economic fundamentals have not translated into outperformance for EM equities.

Workers on Welfare

Posted on Mar 5, 2013

Two weeks ago we unpacked the issue of The Growth Recession, in which we cited productivity growth as one of many possible answers to the question of where all the jobs have gone. Today we ask a different question: where have all the workers gone?

A Golden Life Raft

Posted on Feb 26, 2013

The price of gold is reflecting the tug of war between near-term expectations of a global recovery and long-term inflation risks. As the old saying goes, “gold is no one’s liability” which makes it the perfect life raft for investors with a long-term perspective faced with a global economy that is drowning in debt.

The Growth Recession

Posted on Feb 19, 2013

Although the stock market and the economy bottomed around the same time, the speed of the recovery in these two markets has been quite different. How has the stock market rebounded so well while the economy is still nowhere near the level it was at before the crisis?

Achieving Real Diversification

Posted on Feb 12, 2013

The foundational principal of Diversification 2.0 is finding and investing in assets with low correlation to each other. A portfolio consisting of highly correlated investments is nothing more than a one directional bet on the future. The portfolio will do well in one particular environment but is exposed to a great number of risks if the world doesn't unfold as expected.

Taking the Tide at the Flood

Posted on Feb 5, 2013

There is a bull market in uncertainty that is unsettling for many but also creates opportunity for those willing to take the tide at the flood. This uncertainty is not unfounded, but it might be overpriced. Part of our job is to find the best way to take advantage of the “flood” in uncertainty.

Buying A Four-Letter Word

Posted on Jan 29, 2013

We added AAPL to our watch list when it broke below $550 in November, and we purchased the stock yesterday in our client portfolios at roughly $451/share. We’ll spare you the technical details as there is no shortage of hyper-granular analysis available on the web, but here are a handful of high-level reasons for our decision.

Exporting Unemployment

Posted on Jan 22, 2013

The global financial crisis in 2008 was a game changer on many levels. One of which was, and continues to be, the gross reality that developed economies can no longer borrow their way to prosperity. According to many central banks, the answer to this problem is to export unemployment to other countries through competitive currency devaluation.

The 95th Raising of the Debt Ceiling

Posted on Jan 15, 2013

The whole concept of the debt ceiling is a bit strange in that Congress has the power to set revenues and spending, but not the issuance of debt to fill the gap between these two. How did the debt ceiling come about and will this most recent debate over raising it for the 95th time be a game changer?

An 18-Month Devolution

Posted on Jan 8, 2013

The deal Congress reached on New Year's day dealt with several, but not all, of the important components of the Fiscal Cliff. The real fireworks may be yet to come...

Wimpy Economics

Posted on Dec 18, 2012

Our modern society believes that pain and sacrifice are unnecessary evils that can be alleviated by borrowing from our future prosperity. We can think of this as Wimpy economics since we would “gladly pay you Tuesday” for a hamburger today.