Season Investments

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WEEKLY INSIGHTS

Lack Of Participation

Posted on May 21, 2013

In an era of policy-driven capital markets it’s essential to stay in tune with and even anticipate major policy shifts before they are yesterday’s news. The labor force participation rate is one of the key economic data points that will have an impact on Fed policy in the coming quarters.

Trading At The Speed Of Light

Posted on May 14, 2013

HFT is an algorithmic (computer based) trading approach that tries to make a very small profit over an extremely short period of time. Most HFT trading is done by market participants trying to skim fractions of pennies off of millions of transactions each and every day.

Monthly Macro: Austerity vs Monetary Madness

Posted on May 7, 2013

In this month’s Monthly Macro piece we look at green shoots in the US, the changing attitude towards austerity in Europe, the pending questions surrounding China’s economy and the latest round of monetary madness courtesy of the Bank of Japan.

Coach Gets The Tap

Posted on Apr 30, 2013

Coach is a brand best known here in the US for their leather accessories. The primary risks to the company’s future are the same as its opportunities as it now looks to expand its reach beyond the US and other developed markets into higher growing emerging markets.

Is Diversification Dead?

Posted on Apr 23, 2013

True diversification is achieved by owning investments across multiple asset classes with low correlation to one another, but that hasn't worked over the past 18 months with stocks being "the only game in town." Is diversification dead or will "the knife cut both ways" for this style of investing?

Will Gold Glitter Again?

Posted on Apr 16, 2013

It would be an understatement to say that the gold market has struggled as of late. Friday and Monday’s two-day decline of -13.7% represented the worst two-day drop since 1980. But have the fundamentals for gold really changed that quickly or is something else driving the price movement?

Bitcoin: Confidence Game or Currency Revolution?

Posted on Apr 9, 2013

With all the heavy handed intervention by central banks, some have begun to question the utility of fiat currencies. This has given rise to new alternative currencies including the completely digital bitcoin.

The Hedge That Wasn't

Posted on Mar 26, 2013

Back in June of last year we first wrote about the concept of Antifragility and a promising new exchange traded product that had the potential to deliver antifragile returns. Since writing that first post we believe certain dynamics have shifted in the market, and as a result we no longer use the product for hedging purposes in our portfolios.

Recipe For A Bank Run

Posted on Mar 19, 2013

Cyprus is making front page news due to some radical terms which the Troika proposed for a bailout of their banking system. Although the initial proposal has been shot down, the damage to the European banking system may have already been done.

An Emerging Dichotomy

Posted on Mar 12, 2013

Since the financial crisis the reasons for favoring EM have changed. In a world where most developed countries are struggling under the weight of excessive debt and lackluster economic growth, emerging economies stand out as a diamond in the rough, but strong economic fundamentals have not translated into outperformance for EM equities.

Workers on Welfare

Posted on Mar 5, 2013

Two weeks ago we unpacked the issue of The Growth Recession, in which we cited productivity growth as one of many possible answers to the question of where all the jobs have gone. Today we ask a different question: where have all the workers gone?

A Golden Life Raft

Posted on Feb 26, 2013

The price of gold is reflecting the tug of war between near-term expectations of a global recovery and long-term inflation risks. As the old saying goes, “gold is no one’s liability” which makes it the perfect life raft for investors with a long-term perspective faced with a global economy that is drowning in debt.