Season Investments

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WEEKLY INSIGHTS

The World’s Most Powerful Institution

Posted on Feb 11, 2019

In this week’s post we will look at two important eras in the history of the Federal Reserve which are marked by turning points that expanded the Fed’s mandate and eventually turned it into, as some would argue, the most powerful institution in the world.

Shaping the Course of History

Posted on Feb 5, 2019

Last week we reviewed some of the historical context of the US banking system leading up to the creation of the Federal Reserve. In this week’s post we will continue our walk through history by taking a close look at the time directly before and after the Federal Reserve was created in 1913

Laying the Foundation for the Fed

Posted on Jan 29, 2019

The roots of the Federal Reserve can traced all the way back to our country’s origins and the American Revolutionary War. Although the US was able to successfully finance its war efforts and ultimately defeat the British, the value of the currency they used to finance the war quickly eroded to nothing after the war due to the fact that they had no formal institutional backing.

Playing Defense

Posted on Jan 15, 2019

The last two years have been incredibly interesting for stock market investors of all types. In this week’s insight we’re going to take a fresh look at how our trend following strategy has us positioned as we break the seal on 2019.

No Longer Niche

Posted on Dec 4, 2018

I started my professional career working at a large utility company in California. Fifteen years ago when I worked on RFPs to procure new long-term power purchase agreements, renewable energy was a very niche industry that was heavily reliant on government subsidizes and mandates. But today, the story is entirely different.

Is Cash Really Trash?

Posted on Nov 27, 2018

During volatility, upward trending markets, the old investment adage of “cash is trash” definitely holds true. But 2018 has ushered in a shift in the volatility landscape. The wild swings in the market are understandably making investors nervous, and some clients have ask us about whether or not MarketVANE is prompting us to reduce our exposure to stocks.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Posted on Oct 30, 2018

October has been a month that most stock market investors would rather forget. At one point last week, all three major US stock market indices had given up all their year to date returns. The pickup in volatility and pull-back from the recent high has everyone asking where the market is going from here.

A Recipe For Disaster

Posted on Oct 16, 2018

Yesterday the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the recently completed 2018 fiscal year. Unfortunately, despite an incredibly positive economic backdrop the Federal government’s debt and spending levels remain a grave concern.

Long Way From Neutral

Posted on Oct 9, 2018

Monetary policy is simply not as exciting as it used to be. That said, last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made a passing comment that caused the markets to sit up and take notice.

On Being A Father

Posted on Sep 25, 2018

As my friend Chris said during our recent time away, “I want to be able to look back on my life and know that I did the absolute best I could with the time and resources I was given.” There’s probably no other area of my life where this resonates more than fatherhood.

Thinking in Probabilities

Posted on Sep 18, 2018

One of the most popular rules of thumb that is commonly used is to judge the quality of a decision based solely on the outcome it produces. This is known as a resulting bias where we use the benefit of hindsight to judge the merits of a decision that was made under uncertainty about the future, but this quickly leads to less than optimal decisions.

Why We Scapegoat

Posted on Sep 11, 2018

I recently listened to podcast with Annie Duke about her new book entitled Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. Of the many excellent takeaways from the interview, the overarching theme was how we as humans tend to be sub-optimal in our decision making process and what we can do to get better.