Season Investments



Risky Thinking

Posted on Apr 21, 2015

When was the last time you sat down and thought long and hard about risk? An intentional and thorough consideration of the variety of risks you’re taking in life and why. Risk is an ever-present part of nearly every area of life, and as financial market participants we know that it’s part of the equation that cannot be eliminated.

The Power of Prediction

Posted on Apr 14, 2015

Being right about something tells the world around us that we are knowledgeable and wise. This is why so many financial pundits make brash predictions about the future to give themselves an aura of wisdom. In this week’s post we will look at an individual who was a huge benefactor of this practice and what we can learn from his story.

Labor Market Goes Out Like A Lamb

Posted on Apr 7, 2015

Last Friday the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics released the jobs data for the month of March, and although the labor market entered the month like a lion, it went out like a lamb. This week we’ll unpack the current state of the jobs market by reviewing a series of charts.

A Creative Way To Save

Posted on Mar 31, 2015

One of the easiest and most convenient ways to spend is by using a credit card, which ends up being the downfall of many people’s savings plans as they end up living well beyond their means. But on the flip side, credit cards can also be useful tools that actually help people reach their savings goals if utilized responsibly.

Inflation Data In The Information Age

Posted on Mar 24, 2015

The sheer amount of information available to us in this day and age is absolutely mind-boggling. There are a number of ways to quantify and measure inflation, but one metric that has caught our eye recently is the State Street PriceStats Inflation Index, which measure real time changes in inflation.

The Greatest Fault

Posted on Mar 17, 2015

Everyone make mistakes, yet we have an inherent aversion to admitting them. This very human characteristic is a form of self defense by our ego that can counter-productive to being a successful investor and more importantly a well balanced individual.

Fasten Your Seatbelts

Posted on Mar 10, 2015

The market’s reaction to the strong jobs’ report on Friday was not pretty. About the only investment that was green on the day was the US dollar. The problem the Fed now faces is whether or not to raise rates under the deflationary pressure of a strong currency and lackluster growth in other developed countries.

ARCP's Road To Recovery

Posted on Mar 3, 2015

Last November we profiled the internal accounting scandal and ensuing collapse in the stock price of ARCP. Our conclusion was that the fundamental value of ARCP's real estate portfolio would ultimately win the day. A lot has happened with this company since that original post, and given the significance of this holding for our clients we felt an update was warranted.

Is It Time To Sell Apple?

Posted on Feb 24, 2015

A little over two years ago we published a post explaining why were bullish on the stock everyone loved to hate…Apple. Today we will revisit our original thesis, review what Apple has done over the past two years, and look at what the future might hold for the company.

Not Here Yet

Posted on Feb 17, 2015

Now that the Fed’s third, and supposedly final, round of QE is concluded, the next step is to begin reversing its zero interest rate policy by making short-term interest rate hikes. Predicting when the first rate hike will take place, despite being a near impossible task as we will show, has been the source of endless discussion in the financial media in recent months.

Building A Better Mousetrap

Posted on Feb 10, 2015

P2P lending is trying to displace the traditional banking model. One of the reasons we are so bullish on P2P lending is because we see it as a technology play in an established and proven industry. P2P platforms are simply building a better mousetrap through the use of technology in the age old banking industry.

Lost Decade For Sale

Posted on Feb 3, 2015

You lend the government money for ten years, and in return they’ll offer you a yield just barely high enough to cover expected inflation over that time period. Sure, you might not gain any real ground, but at least you won’t be losing purchasing power. How does that sound? Are you ready to buy a lost decade?