Season Investments

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WEEKLY INSIGHTS

ARCP's Road To Recovery

Posted on Mar 3, 2015

Last November we profiled the internal accounting scandal and ensuing collapse in the stock price of ARCP. Our conclusion was that the fundamental value of ARCP's real estate portfolio would ultimately win the day. A lot has happened with this company since that original post, and given the significance of this holding for our clients we felt an update was warranted.

Is It Time To Sell Apple?

Posted on Feb 24, 2015

A little over two years ago we published a post explaining why were bullish on the stock everyone loved to hate…Apple. Today we will revisit our original thesis, review what Apple has done over the past two years, and look at what the future might hold for the company.

Not Here Yet

Posted on Feb 17, 2015

Now that the Fed’s third, and supposedly final, round of QE is concluded, the next step is to begin reversing its zero interest rate policy by making short-term interest rate hikes. Predicting when the first rate hike will take place, despite being a near impossible task as we will show, has been the source of endless discussion in the financial media in recent months.

Building A Better Mousetrap

Posted on Feb 10, 2015

P2P lending is trying to displace the traditional banking model. One of the reasons we are so bullish on P2P lending is because we see it as a technology play in an established and proven industry. P2P platforms are simply building a better mousetrap through the use of technology in the age old banking industry.

Lost Decade For Sale

Posted on Feb 3, 2015

You lend the government money for ten years, and in return they’ll offer you a yield just barely high enough to cover expected inflation over that time period. Sure, you might not gain any real ground, but at least you won’t be losing purchasing power. How does that sound? Are you ready to buy a lost decade?

A Fool's Wisdom

Posted on Jan 27, 2015

No one likes to be called a fool and very few people consider themselves to be foolish, but the fact of the matter is that we all express some degree of overconfidence in our abilities or knowledge which lead to foolish decisions. What is it about human nature that makes it so hard to simply admit “we don’t know” certain things?

Swiss Surprise

Posted on Jan 20, 2015

Last Thursday the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the market by announcing that it would no longer peg the value of the Swiss Franc to the Euro. The news sent the Franc soaring against the Euro while the Swiss stock market cratered. This week we look at the reasons for the peg, why it may have ended so abruptly, and what it all means for our US-based clients.

Enjoying Lower Gas Prices

Posted on Jan 13, 2015

The nature of our line of work is that we are in constant dialogue about economic and investment-related topics. Not surprisingly, the majority of questions and comments we've heard lately have been related to cheap gas prices, how long they will last and whether or not energy-related investments might represent a good opportunity.

What Lies Within Us

Posted on Jan 6, 2015

A little over 60% of Americans either regularly or occasionally make New Year’s resolutions and of those people only 8% succeed in achieving their goal. Spending less and saving more money was the third most popular resolution among Americans in 2014, as such, we will cover three helpful tips in achieving self-discipline in spending this week.

Russia Hits The Panic Button

Posted on Dec 16, 2014

Although we are experiencing smooth sailing here at home, it’s important to realize that this is not the case when looking abroad. A handful of emerging economies are reeling in the face of collapsing oil prices with perhaps the most tenuous situation being found in Russia.

Burning A Hole In Our Pockets

Posted on Dec 9, 2014

Why do we all have such an innate desire to spend money? For many of us, it is as if money literally burns a hole in their pocket as it is spent faster than it can be accumulated. The desire to spend money and acquire things comes from an innate desire to boost our self-esteem.

Oil's Winners & Losers

Posted on Dec 2, 2014

The recent collapse in oil prices is quickly becoming one of the most important macro developments of the year – and with it plenty of winners and losers are being made. We wrote about the downward trend in oil back in October after the price had dropped by 25% into the mid-80’s and now we revisit the topic at prices yet another 25% lower in the mid-60’s.