Babe Ruth's career batting average was .342 implying that roughly two-thirds of his at bats resulted in an out, yet for every 10 at bats he gained roughly 7 bases. Trend following investment strategies exhibit this same effect in that they have relatively low batting averages but a very high expected slugging percentage.
Decisions under uncertainty can be mapped out in order to optimize each decision based on the probability of different outcomes. In today’s post, we will walk through a brief example on decision theory and show how it relates to investing.
We are now entering a new phase of the Fed cycle. After nearly seven years of zero percent interest rates we are finally on the precipice of an interest rate increase. In light of this, we thought now would be a good time to dig into what all this rate hike talk really means.
Unfortunately our education system and spendthrift society do a very poor job emphasizing the importance of saving at a young age in order to harness the full potential of what Albert Einstein considered to be the 8th wonder of the world. In this week’s Insight we will unpack the miracle of compound interest to hopefully encourage our readers to save early and often.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the intensifying El Nino and what it could mean for the upcoming winter season. But as for us, our attention has been more focused on the violent storm that has already hit land, the one that has been moving through financial markets during the month of August.
The price of oil has sold off rather spectacularly over the past year due primarily to a decision by OPEC not to cut production in the face of softening oil demand worldwide. In this week’s Insight we explore the relationship between oil and gasoline and look at why gas and oil prices have diverged.
In Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Falstaff survives a battle by pretending to be dead and justifies his deception by rationalizing that, “The better part of valor is discretion.” While this line was intended to be tongue in cheek, there is certainly some truth to the statement in that courage finds a better companion in caution than in recklessness.
The current drama unfolding in China has many of the same characteristics of a classic bubble (see Dutch Tulip Mania, the Roaring 20’s, or the Internet Bubble as a couple examples), but with a couple key differences that may end up creating some long-term repercussions for China.
The Greek crisis will surely be one of the defining macroeconomic stories of this decade. We are now in the sixth year of this drama. Greece has found its way back onto the front page repeatedly since late 2009, and the past six weeks have ushered in Act III (as measured by the number of bailouts the country has received) of what is truly turning into a Greek Tragedy.
At its core, trend following is a reactionary discipline that doesn’t try to predict the future based on some sort of gut conviction or analysis of the macroeconomic tea leaves. In this week’s post we will unpack Season Investments’ own secret sauce of trend following coined MarketVANE, which we apply as a long-term investment discipline to both stocks and hard assets.
One of the disciplines we have embraced here at Season Investments is called trend following. In its simplicity, trend following is an elegant solution to the age old conundrum of needing robust returns while simultaneously being unable to withstand the extreme volatility of risk assets.